Airport FOD incident prediction based on Grey-Markov method

Abstract

Abstract:

Causes of aircraft FOD incidents are complex and random, so it is difficult to use general method to predict incident. Grey-Markov method is used to predict aircraft FOD incidents in future sequence and Grey-Markov prediction model is established, the calculation result shows that grey theory predicting data just locate in Markov chain prediction interval. The prediction result is proved accurate and the method is applicable, which can provide necessary statistical support for airport FOD prevention management.

Key words: airport, prediction model, Grey-Markov, aircraft FOD incident, evaluation method

CLC Number:

V351.11

WANG Wei, ZHANG Qingdong. Airport FOD incident prediction based on Grey-Markov method[J]. .

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