Short-term terminal airspace delay prediction based on weather impacted traffic index

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the flight delay in terminal airspace caused by the changes of short-term weather conditions, radar echo PPI(plane-position indication)and RHI(range-height indication)are firstly used to classify the precipitation grades, then the contour of different grades of convective clouds is extracted by image recognition method.Secondly, the corresponding time of traffic flow information is matched to the convective clouds, and the calculation method of 3D WITI (weather impacted traffic index)based on different levels of precipitation is put forward.Finally, according to air traffic control rules, a short-term delay prediction model is proposed through exponential regression analysis between WITI and delay time under different control intervals or rerouting path distance.Simulation results show that under the condition of control interval adjustment and rerouting, compared with the linear regression model, the fit goodness of exponential regression model increases 1.6%~4.3%, and the standard error of estimate is closed to 0, indicating that the exponential regression delay prediction model can better reflect the actual delay situation of terminal airspace under the influence of precipitation.

Key words: terminal airspace, precipitation grades, air traffic flow, WITI, delay prediction

CLC Number:

V355.1

ZHANG Ming, ZHANG Ming, LIU Kai, ZHAO Min. Short-term terminal airspace delay prediction based on weather impacted traffic index[J]. .

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