CFIT risk caused by human errors#br#

Abstract

Abstract: CFIT is one of the main types of civil aviation accidents. Aiming at CFIT risk during approaching and landing procedures, a system dynamics model is introduced to study the impact of human errors on CFIT. Cause-effect diagram is used to demonstrate the risk factors of CFIT and their interactive relations. Constructing the system dynamics model and simulating the change of the event chain, the risk value is obtained. By controlling variables like the pilots’ monthly average flight sorties, irregularities, etc, we observed the impact of each input scheme on the risk of CFIT. Results shows that pilot fatigue and routine violations have the greatest impact on the risk of
CFIT. Besides, it is verified feasibly to study safety risk by system dynamics in a given relationship, which not only reduces the complexity of risk assessment, but also provides a new approach for decision -making management to improve safety.

Key words: Controlled flight into terrain, human errors, system dynamics, safety risk

CLC Number:

WANG Jiening, ZHONG Bin. CFIT risk caused by human errors#br#[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China, 2019, 37(3): 38-43.

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