In order to achieve accurate short-term forecast of airport flow, a decomposition integration forecast model based on
twice decomposition method is established in this paper. Firstly, the seasonal and trend decomposition procedure
based on Loess (STL) algorithm is applied to decompose the original time series into three components, including
trend term, seasonal term and residual term, and their sample entropy are calculated. Secondly, genetic algorithm
(GA) is applied to optimize the parameters of variational mode decomposition (VMD), and the components with
larger entropy values are subjected to twice decomposition. Thirdly, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) is applied
to predict all components after twice decomposition, and the final predicted value is obtained by adding and integrating. Finally, the actual operation data of domestic typical airports are collected for case analysis. For the 60 min
arrival and departure flow time series of Beijing Capital International Airport, the equal coefficient (EC) values predicted in this paper are 0.970 3 and 0.995 9 respectively, which has an improvement compared to other common
models. In addition, for the three large international airports of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, and
Guangzhou Baiyun, the EC values predicted by the proposed model are all above 0.970 0 for arrival and departure
flow at 60 min and 30 min scales, and the predicted EC values at the 15 min scale are all above 0.950 0. The results
indicate that the twice decomposition integration forecast model established in this paper has good accuracy and universality, and is feasible and effective for short-term forecast of airport flow.