中国民航大学学报 ›› 2013, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 62-64.

• 民用航空 • 上一篇    

基于岭回归法的航油消耗评价指标研究与修正

李晓津,张蝶   

  1. (中国民航大学经济与管理学院,天津300300)
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-11 修回日期:2012-09-11 出版日期:2013-06-23 发布日期:2013-10-08
  • 作者简介:李晓津(1968—),男,山东烟台人,教授,硕士,研究方向为航空运输经济.

Research and modification of jet fuel consumption evaluation index based on ridge regression

LI Xiao-jin,ZHANG Die   

  1. (College of Economics and Management,CAUC,Tianjin 300300,China)
  • Received:2012-06-11 Revised:2012-09-11 Online:2013-06-23 Published:2013-10-08

摘要:

随着中国航空运输周转量不断增长,航油消耗量也在持续增长。然而,航油价格和环境成本(碳交易或碳税)的增加使航空公司不得不大力节油。为了更加精确地评估航空公司的航油消耗,基于中国航空运输业1981-2010 年的统计数据,运用最小二乘法对现有的油耗评价指标—单位吨公里油耗进行研究,并在此基础上引入了起飞爬升下降油耗这个指标,同时运用岭回归法解决了回归过程中存在的多重共线性问题,最终得到标准化的岭回归方程。结果表明,飞机起飞爬升下降时耗油比巡航时要高,增加指标更符合中国航空运输业的实际情况。

关键词: 航油消耗, 评价指标, 最小二乘法, 岭回归

Abstract:

Along with the constant increase of China air transportation turnover volume,jet fuel consumption continues to rise. However,as the jet fuel price and environmental costs(i.e. from carbon trade schemes or taxes)are higher and higher,airlines have to take good measures on fuel-saving. To evaluate the jet fuel consumption of airlines more precisely,this paper studies the existing evaluation index of fuel consumption,per ton-kilometer,based on the 1981-2010 statistical data of China air transportation with least square method,introduces the index of taking off and landing fuel consumption,solves multicollinearity by method of ridge regression and achieves standard ridge regression equation. The results show that the fuel consumption when taking off and landing is higher than when cruising,and introducing the index of taking off and landing fuel consumption is more in line with the actual situation of China air transportation.

Key words: jet fuel consumption, evaluation index, least square method, ridge regression

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