基于网络层次分析法的跑道侵入风险模糊评价

中国民航大学学报

基于网络层次分析法的跑道侵入风险模糊评价

卢飞¹，张宗路²，张兆宁¹

（1.中国民航大学国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室，天津300300；2.深圳航空有限责任公司，广东深圳518128）

收稿日期:2013-01-15 修回日期:2013-04-02 出版日期:2014-02-24 发布日期:2014-01-02
作者简介:卢飞（1984—），男，山东新泰人，助教，硕士，研究方向为交通运输规划与管理.
基金资助:
中国民用航空局科技基金（MHRD201018）；中央高校基本科研业务费专项（2XH2011B004）

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of runway incursion risk based on analytic network process

LU Fei¹,ZHANG Zong-lu²,ZHANG Zhao-ning¹

(1. National key Labratory of Air Traffic Operation Safety Technology,CAUC,Tianjin 300300,China;2. Shenzhen Airlines,Guangdong Shenzhen 518128,China)

Received:2013-01-15 Revised:2013-04-02 Online:2014-02-24 Published:2014-01-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

近年来，随着机场交通量的增大，跑道侵入事件迅速增加，为了保障机场运行安全，对跑道侵入风险进行综合评价显得尤为重要。首先，在对跑道侵入影响因素进行分析的基础上，建立跑道侵入风险评价指标体系。综合分析各评价指标之间的相关性，运用网络层次分析法，构建跑道侵入的ANP网络结构，并借助Super Decision 软件计算各评价指标权重。然后，应用模糊综合评价法对跑道侵入风险进行评价。通过实例分析，验证了该评价方法的有效性。最后，根据评价结果，对该机场降低跑道侵入风险的对策提出建。

关键词: 跑道侵入, 风险评价, 指标相关性, 网络层次分析法渊ANP冤, 模糊综合评价

Abstract:

Along with the increase of the airport traffic,runway incursion events are increasing rapidly,which have severely affected the airport security. In order to guarantee the safe operation of the airport,the assessment of runway incursion risk is critically significant. Firstly,after analyzing runway incursion influencial factors,the runway incursion risk assessment index system is established. Analyzing the interdependency relations of evaluation index,the runway incursion analytic network process (ANP)network structure is constructed,and Super Decision software is used to determine the weight of every index. Then,fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to assess runway incursion risk. Through case analysis,the feasibility of the assessment method is verified. Finally,the promotion countermeasures are proposed for the airport to reduce runway incursion risk based on the evaluation results.

Key words: runway incursion, risk assessment, evaluation index correlation, analytic network process (ANP), fuzzy comprehensive evaluation

中图分类号:

V328.3

卢飞，张宗路，张兆宁. 基于网络层次分析法的跑道侵入风险模糊评价[J]. 中国民航大学学报.

LU Fei,ZHANG Zong-lu,ZHANG Zhao-ning. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of runway incursion risk based on analytic network process[J]. .

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