关键词: 公务航空, 市场需求, 灰色预测, 马尔可夫链

Abstract:

At present,business aviation of China has been rapidly developed,meanwhile it has been constrained by many factors such as airspace management system,industry management standards,infrastructure and so on.Considering this feature,by combining the advantages of both grey prediction and Markov theory,this research attempts to forecast the business aviation market demand in China. Firstly,the GM(1,1)model is established after improving the original time series,and then the predicted value is corrected by Markov model. Results show that the prediction accuracy of improved Grey-Markov model has been further improved. This model has not only the advantages of grey system for short-term trend accurate forecast,but also the accurately predicting advantage of Markov prediction model for volatility data. It overcomes the disadvantages of both the two predicting methods. This data processing method is straightforward and has a relatively high practicability.

Key words: business aviation, market demand, grey prediction, Markov chain