关键词: 偶然损伤, 事故征候, GM(1, 1)模型, 改进的灰色马尔可夫链

Abstract: Accidental damage is one of the main sources of aircraft structural damage, which could cause huge economic loss to airlines and bring a great threat to aviation safety. Analyses and forecast of accidental damage incidents are important parts of civil aviation safety research. Study on influential factors and developing trend helps avoid such accidents in the future. According to statistical data of China civil aviation safety information, an advanced Grey-Markov chain model which combines the advantages of Grey prediction and Markov prediction has been applied in short-term forecast of accidental damage incidents. The Grey-Markov chain model is improved for higher accuracy and longer predictable time. Result shows that the improved Grey-Markov chain model's accuracy is better than that of GM (1,1) model, the current model could be used for prediction of accidental damage incidents and provide reference for probability grading of accidental damages.

Key words: accidental damage, incident, GM(1,1) model, advanced Grey-Markov chain