关键词: 航空运输, 航迹预测, 质量估算, 离场航迹

Abstract: The aircraft weight cannot be obtained directly from departure aircraft altitude profile prediction, and thus the precision accuracy is affected. Aiming at this problem, the aircraft weight estimation model and the altitude profile prediction model based on the real-time track data are established. Using the actual departure trajectory of B737-800 recorded by SSR, the aircrafts’ weight and profile is predicted in real time from 500 m above the ground according to the historical track data at each time. Then the vertical track of follow -up departure is predicted and compared with the actual trajectory to analyze the prediction accuracy of departure time and flight distance. Results show that higher prediction accuracy of aircraft weight can be achieved with trajectory parameters on higher flight altitudes. If the weight estimation is started on and above 3 500 m, the subsequent error can be maintained within 5%

Key words: air transportation, trajectory prediction, mass estimation, departure trajectory