人为差错导致的可控飞行撞地风险研究#br#

中国民航大学学报 ›› 2019, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (3): 38-43.

人为差错导致的可控飞行撞地风险研究#br#

王洁宁，钟彬

（中国民航大学空中交通管理学院，天津300300）

出版日期:2019-06-27 发布日期:2020-04-01
作者简介:王洁宁（1966—），男，甘肃兰州人，教授，博士，研究方向为空管运行安全及空管系统仿真.
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFB0502401）

CFIT risk caused by human errors#br#

WANG Jiening, ZHONG Bin#br#

（College of Air Traffic Management, CAUC, Tianjin 300300, China）

Online:2019-06-27 Published:2020-04-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 可控飞行撞地是民航飞行事故的主要类型之一。针对进近着陆阶段人为差错导致的可控飞行撞地风险，采用系统动力学方法研究其动态复杂性，以因果图表示可控飞行撞地风险致因的交互关系，并用系统动态流图仿真分析事件链的状态变化，得出风险值。通过控制飞行员月平均飞行时间、违规状况等变量，可知飞行员疲劳和惯例违规对可控飞行撞地风险的影响最大。此外，还验证了在某种既定的关系上，用系统动力学研究事故风险是可行的，不仅能减轻风险评估工作的繁杂性，也为改进安全提供了新的决策管理办法。

关键词: 可控飞行撞地, 人为差错, 系统动力学, 安全风险

Abstract: CFIT is one of the main types of civil aviation accidents. Aiming at CFIT risk during approaching and landing procedures, a system dynamics model is introduced to study the impact of human errors on CFIT. Cause-effect diagram is used to demonstrate the risk factors of CFIT and their interactive relations. Constructing the system dynamics model and simulating the change of the event chain, the risk value is obtained. By controlling variables like the pilots’ monthly average flight sorties, irregularities, etc, we observed the impact of each input scheme on the risk of CFIT. Results shows that pilot fatigue and routine violations have the greatest impact on the risk of
CFIT. Besides, it is verified feasibly to study safety risk by system dynamics in a given relationship, which not only reduces the complexity of risk assessment, but also provides a new approach for decision -making management to improve safety.

Key words: Controlled flight into terrain, human errors, system dynamics, safety risk

中图分类号:

王洁宁, 钟彬. 人为差错导致的可控飞行撞地风险研究#br#[J]. 中国民航大学学报, 2019, 37(3): 38-43.

WANG Jiening, ZHONG Bin. CFIT risk caused by human errors#br#[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China, 2019, 37(3): 38-43.

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