Civil aviation passenger throughput forecasting research based on combination forecasting method--Capital Airport

Abstract

Abstract:

"Twelve Five"development period will be the golden age of China's civil aviation industry. Aviation passenger throughput will be also rapidly added. Beijing Capital International Airport is the largest civilian airport. It will be significant to research its passenger throughput by scientific and rational method. This passage makes full use of the latest historical data,using multiple linear regression models and time series trend extrapolation model to predict the 2012-2016 passenger throughput of Beijing Capital International Airport. In order to overcome the defects of the two single methods,the portfolio weighting method will be used to determine the results. Finally,a combination of predictive value and historical value of the error analysis results show that: the combination forecasting method can improve the forecast accuracy and reduce forecast error.

Key words: airport, civil aviation passengers, throughput, combination method

CLC Number:

F562.6

CHEN Yu-bao,ZENG Gang. Civil aviation passenger throughput forecasting research based on combination forecasting method--Capital Airport[J]. .

References 10

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