Abstract:

For the inevitability of threat and error,evolutionary game model of threat and error management between airlines and pilots has been established by the method of evolutionary game theory. The evolution path is simulated by Matlab,and then the dynamic effect of different variables to threat and error management can be analyzed. Result of the research shows that if more training were provided to pilots,it could effectively weaken the threat and reduce mistakes. In the long-term supervision of threat and error,the airlines should adjust its internal mechanism,the training of threat and error's identification should be established,airlines should increase the intensity of punishments for the pilots'abstain from an act and increase training costs rationally.Besides,airlines should fully perform their function of administration;and greater efforts in pilots'study organization should be given in order to strengthen the pilots'identification and responsing capacity of threat and error. At the same time,the simulation result also confirms its feasibility and applicability,providing research ideas for threat and error management which is an emerging field.

Key words: safety in flight, airlines, pilots, evolutionary gaming, threat and error management