Abstract:

China's foreign trade has grown fast and become a bigger part of international market. During this fast-growing period,the development of foreign trade has influenced air transportation directly and indirectly,the growth of commodity trade has more needs for air-freight,and also international communication promotes the development
of air passenger transport. Based on the dynamic effect theory of international trade and 1982-2011 years'data,the Granger causality test is used between the 'total volume of imports and exports' and 'air transportation turnover volume'. Then a finite distributed lag model of foreign trade and air transportation growth is developed.
The results reveal that there is a causal relationship between foreign trade and air transportation,and the contribution value is 0.28.

Key words: foreign trade, air transportation, Granger causality test, contribution value