Abstract:

With the rapid development of civil aviation,the heavy airport surface traffic flow may cause serious safety
hazard to the operation of airport. As is known,this problem is more serious in hub airports. In order to analyze
the safety hazard of airport surface effectively,the Bayesian network model is applied to the safety evaluation of
aircraft taxiing conflict. By analyzing the factors that cause safety accidents,the fault tree of aircraft intersection
conflicting accident on taxiway is put forward. Then the Bayesian network model of this accident is established
based on FTA according to the transformation algorithm. Before the analysis,according to the historical
recording of one hub airport's safety accidents and the review of references,the prior probability of root nodes
are derived by utilizing empirical analysis method and expert grading method. Then,the GeNIe software is used
to calculate the posteriori probability values of different nodes. Two-way reasoning technology and sensitivity
analysis are used to predict and diagnose accidents. As a result,we can find out the key factors of aircraft taxiing
system and propose corresponding measures so as to reduce the accident rate. Finally,the analysing results
show that the factors which have greater influence on the aircraft taxiing safety are training and management
factors,pavement layout factors. Therefore the airport departments should pay more attention to them
emphatically. In conclusion,a comprehensive application of diagnostic reasoning and causal reasoning is used
to achieve a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of aircraft taxiing safety.

Key words: air transport, safety evaluation, Bayesian network, taxiing conflict