Abstract: In order to evaluate the vulnerability of air traffic control (ATC) operation system, this paper first analyzes 1 018 unsafe incidents of ATC in 2011-2018, classifies the causes, and extracts the influencing factors of vulnerability of ATC operation system. According to the four aspects of controller, equipment, environment and management of ATC system, as well as five parts including flight crew, airport support, aircraft, dispatch and military aviation activities in operation environment, a total of 28 vulnerability assessment indicators of ATC operation system are summarized. Then, the comprehensive weight is obtained by AHP and entropy weight method. Considering the vulnerability influencing factors, the features of system disturbance are evaluated by using the cloud model with fuzzy and random characteristics. After scoring by Delphi method, the forward cloud generator is applied to draw the cloud chart which can directly reflect the vulnerability level of each indicator. Finally, the evaluation results are compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the vulnerability level of ATC operation system of North China Air Traffic Management Bureau tends to be relatively high, with frequent occurrence of unsafe events, among which military aviation activities and controller factors have greatest effect.

Key words: font-size:15.04px, ">air traffic control (ATC) operation system, vulnerability, entropy weight method, cloud model, fuzzy comprehen鄄 sive evaluation