Safety assessment and decision analysis of UAV considering uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract:

Quantitative safety assessment is an important means to verify whether unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) meets the

safety requirements. Aiming at the parameter uncertainty of UAV component failure distribution, firstly, the failure

distribution parameters of basic events are modified by Bayesian theory to obtain the failure probability of top

events. Then, the safety decision analysis of top events is completed with the help of Bayesian decision theory. Finally, the safety evaluation of UAV is improved into a complete assessment and decision analysis process. The research shows that the calculation process of top event failure probability and Bayesian decision can be realized by

taking the error information generated by data link communication during the operation of a UAV as an example.

Key words:

uncertainty, safety assessment, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), Bayesian theory, Bayesian decision

CLC Number:

V328

TIAN Yi, RAO Haochang, XIAO Nyu′e.

Safety assessment and decision analysis of UAV considering uncertainty

[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China, 2025, 43(1): 83-88.

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