Journal of Civil Aviation University of China ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (5): 16-23.

• Safety and airworthiness of civil aircraft • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Identification of causal factors and analysis of mechanism of action of near mid-air collision incident

  

  1. 1. College of Safety Science and Engineering, CAUC, Tianjin 300300, China; 2. Sichuan Chuanhang Logistics Limited Company, Co.,
    Ltd., Chengdu 610000, China
  • Received:2023-04-01 Revised:2023-06-16 Online:2025-11-17 Published:2025-11-17

Abstract:

In order to help safety managers understand the occurrence mechanism of near mid-air collision incident and
clarify the relationship and importance of causal factors, a model for identifying the causal factors of near mid-air
collision incident and analyzing its potential mechanism of action is proposed. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)
topic model is used to identify causal factors from incident reports and lists of hazard source, the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory and interpretative structural model (DEMATEL-ISM) is constructed, the influence relationships among factors are clarified, the importance and attributes of each factor are determined, a
multi-level hierarchical structure model is constructed to visually display the direct, indirect, and fundamental
causes of the incident. The results show that 33 causal factors are identified, including poor risk management and
control of abnormal operation, among which wrong instruction issued by command seat is the direct cause, directly leading to the occurrence of the incident. The poor performance of dual position system is an indirect cause,
which has a relatively small direct impact, but has a significant interactive coupling effect with other factors. In adequate safety and operational training are the fundamental causes, and improving them is conducive to reducing the occurrence of near mid-air collision incident from the root. Near mid-air collision incidents are the result
of the combined effects of direct, indirect, and fundamental causes, based on this, specific countermeasures and
suggestions are proposed from the perspective of air traffic management.

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