Abstract: Choosing the information of controlled flight into terrain(CFIT) as the research object, a three-layer Bayesian network model including event consequence layer, aircraft status layer and inducing layer is established according to the analysis of the CFIT event evolution process based on basic element analysis method. Taking the CFIT event data collected by civil aviation of China from 2017 to 2019 and Aviation Safety Network (ASN) in recent 20 years (2000-2019) as samples, the parameters of network nodes are established. The known nodes and target nodes of Bayesian network are selected by GeNIe for quantitative analysis, to obtain the possibility ranking, most probable target nodes and impact intensity of target nodes. Finally, the key risk processes of the CFIT, namely flight altitude control, crew loss of situational awareness, flight support and corresponding quantitative results, are obtained to provide data support for strengthening the risk control of the CFIT events.

Key words: aviation safety information, information quantification, controlled flight into terrain(CFIT), Bayesian network,
risk control