Journal of Civil Aviation University of China ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 46-51.

• Air Transportation Management • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of the influence degree of major public health emergencies on
civil aviation transportation volume in China

LIANG Zhixing1a , MA Xinjie1b , CAO Jie2
  

  1. 1a. Teaching Affairs Management Department; 1b. College of Transportation Science and Engineering, CAUC, Tianjin 300300, China;
    2. Marketing Department, Dalian International Airport Group Co., Ltd., Dalian 116033, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2022-12-21 Revised:2023-05-11 Online:2025-04-08 Published:2025-04-08

Abstract:

In order to scientifically measure the influence level of major public health emergencies on China′s civil aviation
transportation volume and predict the future development trend of China′s civil aviation transportation volume, the
concepts of influence value and influence degree of major public health emergencies were introduced to quantitatively analyze the index such as passenger throughput and cargo throughput, etc. of Beijing Capital International
Airport, Dalian Zhoushuizi International Airport, and China′s civil aviation from 2018 to 2019. The cubic exponential smoothing method was used to calculate the predicted values for 2020 and 2021. The difference between the
predicted values and the actual values was set as the influence value, and the ratio of the influence value of the current month to the influence value of the previous month was defined as the influence degree. The results showed
that the influence degree of public health emergencies on civil aviation transportation volume was about 1.0. From
2022 to 2025, civil aviation transportation volume in China will steadily recover. The introduction of the concept
and method of influence degree provides new ideas for predicting the civil aviation transportation volume in the
context of emergencies.

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