关键词: 安全管理工程, MPL 培训, 威胁与差错管理, 网络层次分析法（ANP）, 证据理论

Abstract:

In order to check every flight training agency‘s training effect about the knowledge unit of threat and error management which faces multi-crew pilot license (MPL),an index system based on ICAO's file named PANSTRG is established to evaluate the threat and error management which goes through MPL training all the while.The analytic network process method which is in combination with evidential theory is then proposed to evaluate the threat and error management training effect of flight training agency C. Results show that flight training agency C's training effect of threat and error management is evaluated between good and excellent. The assessment of its quantitative value is equal to 80.105,which represents great room for continuously improvement. And the experimental result is basically in consistent with the flight training agency C's actual condition. At the same time,it shows that the combination method of analytic network process and evidential theory for the evaluation of threat and error management's training effect is effective.

Key words: safety management engineering, MPL training, threat and error management, analytic network process (ANP), evidential theory