民机, 航线运行, 态势分析, 持续适航, 事故症候, 风险计算

A risk algorithm model of route operation safety situation is proposed in this paper, by combining factors that affect

airline safety operations and customer concerns. Firstly, the risk index of each chapter of the Air Transport Association (ATA) is calculated from eight aspectsincluding severe/general accidentsymptoms, unsafe incidents, failure rate

per thousand hours, reporting level of operational difficulty, abnormal flight conditions, risk level of continuous airworthiness incidents, index of commercial operation release conditions and the risk of failure to implement service

bulletin (SB) above the important category level. Then, based on the fleet risk index list composed of individual aircraft risk index, the risk points of each aircraft of the airline are obtained. Finally, the symptom nodes are analyzed

on this basis, and provide measures to mitigate risks. The verification shows that the proposed algorithm model can

improve the efficiency and economy of fleet operation, thereby ensuring the safe and smooth operation of aircraft.

civil aircraft, route operation, situation analysis, continuous airworthiness, accident symptoms, risk calculation