航班延误扰动条件下的离场航班调度方法

中国民航大学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 39-45.

航班延误扰动条件下的离场航班调度方法

徐东旭，张戎

同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室，上海

201800

收稿日期:2023-03-27 修回日期:2023-05-17 出版日期:2025-04-08 发布日期:2025-04-08
作者简介:徐东旭（1997— ），男，安徽宿州人，博士研究生，研究方向为航空延误、交通网络抗毁性、空铁联运
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目（U2033205）

Departure flight scheduling method under the condition of flight delay disturbance

XU Dongxu, ZHANG Rong

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Tongji University, Shanghai 201800, China

Received:2023-03-27 Revised:2023-05-17 Online:2025-04-08 Published:2025-04-08

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

航班起飞过程受到各种不确定因素的影响，如航班延误、调度延误、滑行时间等。一个可靠稳健的离港顺序

对机场的安全、高效运行至关重要。本文首先通过对航班延误历史数据进行核密度估计得到航班延误的核

概率密度曲线，然后通过线性插值得到航班延误随机数。之后，将得到的航班延误随机数作为输入，建立不

确定航班延误情况下的多跑道离场航班调度模型，并设计一种对航班号进行编码的遗传算法求解该模型。

在此基础上，进一步建立了不确定航班延误情况下多目标动态调度模型，并设计求解该模型的混合算法。对

两种模型的结果进行蒙特卡洛仿真，探讨航班延误不确定性对离场调度的影响。最后，以广州白云国际机场

的历史数据为例，进行了模型验证。

关键词:

航班延误, 核密度估计, 多跑道调度, 遗传算法

Abstract:

The takeoff process of a flight is affected by various uncertain factors, such as flight delay, scheduling delay and taxi

time, etc. A reliable and robust departure sequence is essential to the safe and efficient operation of the airport.

Firstly, the kernel probability density curve of flight delay is obtained by estimating the kernel density of flight delay historical data, and then the random number of flight delay is obtained by linear interpolation. Taking the random number of flight delay as input, a multi-runway departure flight scheduling model under the uncertain flight

delay is established, and a genetic algorithm for encoding flight number is designed to solve this model. On this basis, a multi-objective dynamic scheduling model under uncertain flight delay is further established, and a hybrid

algorithm is designed to solve this model. Monte Carlo simulation is performed on the results of the two models to

explore the impact of flight delay uncertainty on departure scheduling. Finally, taking the historical data of

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport as an example, the model validation is conducted.

Key words:

flight delay, kernel density estimation, multi-runway scheduling, genetic algorithm

中图分类号:

V355.1

徐东旭, 张戎.

航班延误扰动条件下的离场航班调度方法

[J]. 中国民航大学学报, 2024, 42(6): 39-45.

XU Dongxu, ZHANG Rong.

Departure flight scheduling method under the condition of flight delay disturbance

[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China, 2024, 42(6): 39-45.

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