民机火灾事故中人员恐慌心理系统动力学研究

中国民航大学学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (4): 15-21.

民机火灾事故中人员恐慌心理系统动力学研究

中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院，天津 300300

收稿日期:2023-01-17 修回日期:2023-05-23 出版日期:2025-09-22 发布日期:2025-09-22
作者简介:杜红兵（1967— ），男，山西河津人，教授，博士，研究方向为民航安全管理

Research on the system dynamics of personnel panic psychology in civil

aircraft fire accidents

College of Safety Science and Engineering, CAUC, Tianjin 300300, China

Received:2023-01-17 Revised:2023-05-23 Online:2025-09-22 Published:2025-09-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探究恐慌心理对民航客机（简称民机）乘客疏散进程的影响，在考虑环境因素、自我调节因素、人群影响

因素的基础上，本文利用 Anylogic 软件建立客舱起火时乘客恐慌心理传播的系统动力学模型，通过问卷调

查等方式确定其参数值，并针对客舱内不同能见度和温度模拟疏散人群中恐慌心理的传播和平复。研究

结果表明：在疏散初期因燃烧产生的烟雾使客舱内能见度降低、温度升高导致恐慌人数迅速增加；随后在

自我调节、机组人员引导和积极信息传播的影响下，恐慌人数逐渐降低，最终恐慌与冷静人群数量相对稳

定，达到动态平衡状态。研究发现，乘客对客舱安全信息关注度的提升可以有效减少人群情绪达到动态平

衡状态所需的时间。本研究对民机应急疏散时缓解乘客恐慌心理，提高疏散效率具有指导意义。

关键词:

民机, 应急疏散, 恐慌心理, 系统动力学

Abstract:

In order to explore the impact of panic psychology on the evacuation process of civil aviation passenger aircraft

(abbreviated as civil aircraft) passengers, based on the consideration of environmental factors, self-regulation factors and population influencing factors, Anylogic software is used to establish the system dynamics model of propagation of panic psychology among passengers during cabin fires, and its parameter values are determined through

questionnaires and other methods. And the propagation and recovery of panic psychology among evacuees are simulated for different visibilities and temperatures in the cabin. The results show that, in the early stage of evacuation,

the smoke generated by the burning caused a decrease in visibility and an increase in temperature in the cabin,

leading to a rapid increase in the number of panicked people. Subsequently, under the influence of self-regulation,

crew guidance and positive information dissemination, the number of people in panic gradually decreased, and finally the number of people in panic and calm remains relatively stable and reaches a state of dynamic balance. The

study finds that the increase in passengers′ attention to cabin safety information can effectively reduce the time it

takes for the crowd′s emotions to reach a dynamic balance. This study has guiding significance for relieving passenger panic psychology and improving evacuation efficiency during emergency evacuation of civil aircraft.

Key words:

civil aircraft, emergency evacuation, panic psychology, system dynamics

中图分类号:

V328
X949

杜红兵, 闫震, 张冲.

民机火灾事故中人员恐慌心理系统动力学研究

[J]. 中国民航大学学报, 2025, 43(4): 15-21.

DU Hongbing, YAN Zhen, ZHANG Chong.

Research on the system dynamics of personnel panic psychology in civil

aircraft fire accidents

[J]. Journal of Civil Aviation University of China, 2025, 43(4): 15-21.

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