关键词: 民航客运量, 系统动力学, 交通一体化, 国际化

Abstract:

During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan"period,China's economic and social development will enter a new historical level as well as transportation. Traffic integration and internationalization is the new trend of the development of modern transportation,which will affect our integrated transport passenger traffic profoundly. An integrated transport passenger traffic prediction model is developed considering the effect of traffic integration and internationalization,compared with traditional methods,not only considers those ordinary factors such as economy and transportation developing,but also reflects the traffic integration and internationalization's effect to the integrated transport passenger traffic systematically.

Key words: Transportation demand, System dynamics, Transportation integration, Internationalization