关键词: 空中交通管理, 交叉航路, 碰撞风险, Event模型

Abstract:

Through improved research on the original Event collision risk model,a cross route collision risk assessment model is established. Ellipsoid collision template is used instead of traditional rectangular collision template and generalized Pareto distribution is employed to describe the tail navigation data which can produce larger errors.Collision risk calculation model is derived under this condition. Finally the horizontal overlap probability of cross route is calculated by the improved Event collision risk model. Results show that ellipsoid Event collision risk model based on generalized Pareto distribution has higher accuracy than original Event model and meets the current safety level target.

Key words: air traffic management, cross route, collision risk, Event model