关键词: 过站航班, 地面保障服务时间, 动态估计法, 马尔科夫蒙特卡洛, 皮尔逊卡方拟合验证, MCMC 标准差

Abstract: In order to accurately estimate the ground service time of transit flight and realize accurate flight push time control, a time estimation method based on MCMC for the transit flight ground service is proposed. Based on the actual process and time modeling, the ground service process is abstracted into an idealized Markov process. The Monte Carlo method is used to dynamically simulate the distribution of idealized links, and the Pearson chisquare fitting method is used to test the authenticity of the distribution. According to the actual process, the MCMC network structure is optimized, the dynamic parameters of the structure are obtained by random numbers,and the ground service time of the flight is dynamically estimated from the actual operational logic relation.Combined with the actual operation data of an airport in Central China, it is shown that the mean absolute error of the proposed dynamic method is 0.8 min shorter than that of the static method, and the error fluctuation is relatively more stable, thus proving the validity of the method.

Key words: transit flight, ground service time, dynamic estimation method, MCMC, Pearson chi fitting test, MCMC standard deviation